Where Did the Jobs Go?

Bouncing Back, But Not As High: Most Displaced Workers Take Pay Cuts

scottbittle — Fri, 24 Aug 2012 12:17:12 -0400

Most people who’ve lost their jobs are sliding down the employment ladder — presuming they’ve managed to get back on the ladder at all.

The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report on “displaced workers” (economist-speak for people who’ve lost their jobs) finds that 56 percent of the people who’ve lost their jobs since 2009 are employed again, and more than half of those re-employed people took a pay cut in their new job. Some key points:

 --In January 2012, 56 percent of the 6.1 million long-tenured
     displaced workers were reemployed, up from 49 percent for the 
     prior survey in January 2010. 

   --Forty percent of long-tenured displaced workers from the 2009-11
     period cited insufficient work as the reason for their displacement,
     and 31 percent cited that their plant or company closed down or 
     moved. 

   --Nearly 1 in 5 long-tenured displaced workers lost a job in
     manufacturing. 

   --Among long-tenured workers who were displaced from full-time wage
     and salary jobs and who were reemployed in such jobs in January 2012,
     46 percent had earnings that were as much or greater than those of
     their lost job.

The Question Project: What Obama and Romney Should Tell Us About Job Creation

scottbittle — Fri, 13 Jul 2012 08:54:57 -0400

Over at our blog on The Huffington Post, we’ve started The Question Project, a modest attempt to raise some of the questions that deserve answers this election year. We hope it’ll inspire more good questions.

You can select a candidate in a dozen different ways: by their party, looks, commercials, endorsements or just as an expression of naked self-interest. But only questions allow us to sort out what candidates think about the things that matter most to us as voters and individuals. Only questions force the candidates to justify themselves to us as custodians of the American dream.

Dr. Shaq and the Nation's Real Dropout Problem

scottbittle — Mon, 07 May 2012 22:45:46 -0400

Shaquille O’Neal is getting some well-deserved attention for going back to school and getting a doctorate. But as we note in our latest Huffington Post post, he’s an exception in more ways than one. We all know that few student athletes make it in professional sports. What’s not as well known is that shockingly few Americans students manage to complete college at all.

And that’s doesn’t bode well for jobs. Check out these stats from Complete College America, and the full post.

Can jobs be more than a talking point in the debate over energy?

scottbittle — Tue, 01 May 2012 09:02:44 -0400

The short answer is yes — if we can all just stop tilting the evidence to win the current spin cycle. Check out our latest post at National Geographic’s Great Energy Challenge blog.

The Long and the Short of it on Jobs

scottbittle — Tue, 17 Apr 2012 08:01:46 -0400

From our latest at the Huffington Post:

We need to do something we just aren’t good at: having a serious debate on how to tackle a near-term problem while also looking at what to do for the future. As the candidates for president and Congress begin offering up their ideas on “jobs,” voters need to consider whether their proposals are aimed at creating jobs quickly or whether they’re aimed at strengthening the job picture over the long haul, say the next decade or two.

The truth is the country really needs both, but we can’t expect short-term cures to fix long-term problems (like job losses due to globalization or technology), and we can’t expect long-term solutions to kick in quickly. You probably won’t hear any subtleties like this on the campaign trail. Generally speaking, politicians are in the confusion business, so drawing these kinds of distinctions isn’t their strong suit. Here’s a quick tour of some of the jobs ideas out there and their short-term and long-term implications.

Trade and Tradeoffs

scottbittle — Wed, 04 Apr 2012 08:57:43 -0400

Which is more important: making solar panels cheap or making them here?

Is Regulation Really Strangling Start-ups?

scottbittle — Tue, 03 Apr 2012 21:49:59 -0400

In our latest Huffington Post blog, we look at the debate over government regulation — how much it really matters for jobs, and whether the current debate is even looking in the right place:

In the end, there’s not much point worrying about the issues surrounding complex federal laws while still making small business owners run around City Hall with folders of perforated papers looking for someone who still handles microfilm processing.

Census Bureau Releases 1940 Data. America Has Changed.

scottbittle — Mon, 19 Mar 2012 21:32:13 -0400

It’s amazing to look at the shifts over time. The move from manufacturing to services is well known, but that’s only the start of the story.

mattstiles:

After 72 years, the U.S. Census Bureau today released data from its decennial count in 1940. The release includes a fascinating graphic about how Americans have changed over time. Here’s just one section, comparing our workforce:

There’s much more in the graphic: housing, demographics, etc. Check it out.

From The Economist’s Graphic Detail blog: a new assessment...

scottbittle — Fri, 16 Mar 2012 10:42:05 -0400

From The Economist’s Graphic Detail blog: a new assessment of global jobs prospects.

Hopes are highest in India and Brazil, driven by the services sector: nearly 6 out of 10 Indian employers in the service sector plan to expand their workforces before the end of June. In China, under pressure to improve salaries and working conditions, companies are not hiring as aggressively as they have in the past. Job prospects in the United States remain weaker than before the recession, but the outlook is the most optimistic it has been since the last quarter of 2008. Unsurprisingly, Greek employers remain gloomy, although fewer expect to be making further redundancies in the second quarter.

"The One Where Young People Can't Get Ahead in the Job Market"

scottbittle — Sun, 11 Mar 2012 12:41:55 -0400

Our latest Huffington Post piece points out that an episode of Friends is actually prescient about a problem facing young people in the workforce: it’s getting harder to get ahead on jobs and wages, and has been for some time. Still, some bets are better than others, and education does pay off in higher wages and lower unemployment rates, as this Bureau of Labor Statistics chart shows:

"Based on one report, it’s as if the president’s full economic agenda is either brilliant or moronic...."

scottbittle — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 16:30:00 -0500

“Based on one report, it’s as if the president’s full economic agenda is either brilliant or moronic. Get good numbers and you’re Keynes reincarnate. Get bad numbers and you can’t add.”

- Vice President Biden’s former chief economist Jared Bernstein • Discussing the process that goes into the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment reports, reports which have taken on new importance as the 2012 election hits. (The numbers showed slight improvement Friday, with the unemployment rate staying steady but jobs levels increasing.) Highly recommend you read the Washington Post’s piece on the matter, which goes in depth explaining exactly what happens to bring those numbers — numbers which can define the entire debate over the next month — to reality. It’s fascinating. (via shortformblog)

We agree, a great story. And since here at Where Did the Jobs Go? we’re fans of ferocious nonpartisanship, there’s a second quote that’s just as great:

The lockdown was an exercise in tedium and precision, but those have been the hallmarks of BLS for 125 years. The agency remains strictly nonpartisan and intentionally bland. It measures the economy without ever opining on it. “The glass here is never half-empty or half-full,” Kosanovich said, repeating a popular BLS motto. “It’s an eight-ounce glass with four ounces of liquid.”

betterbooktitles: Edith Wharton: The House of Mirth Reader...

scottbittle — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 10:00:05 -0500

betterbooktitles:

Edith Wharton: The House of Mirth

Reader Submission: Title and Redesign by Michelle Legro of Lapham’s Quarterly.

These are a lot of fun. But sometimes they’re also relevant.

Good jobs numbers, still far to go

scottbittle — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 15:00:05 -0500

The new jobs report brings hope that that the economy is finally on a hot streak. But if you’re wondering why so many economists and analysts are reluctant to declare victory, have a look at this chart from the Economix blog showing how long it took in previous recessions to make up the jobs that were lost. So far we’re only made back one-third of the jobs lost during the Great Recession.

Things are indeed getting better. The problem is that the hole we’ve fallen into is so very, very deep.

The Jobs Calculator: Knowing what it really takes to turn things around

scottbittle — Fri, 09 Mar 2012 08:00:05 -0500

Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest monthly jobs report. With luck, it’ll be fairly optimistic. But before the bloviating gets too far out of hand, you might want to get some perspective. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlantic has come up with a “jobs calculator” that lets you figure out how long it’ll take, and how many jobs have to be created, to hit any specific target for unemployment.

For example, the current unemployment rate is 8.3 percent. If you wanted to cut that down to 6 percent in 12 months, the calculator will tell you what it takes: payroll employment would have to grow by 363,813 jobs per month. In January, payroll employment rose by 243,000 — and the calculator helps put that in context. Because there are plenty of people who’ll want you to think the jobs situation is either better or worse than it really is.

(A hat tip to @AnnieLowrey on this one).

Jobs Myth No. 4: Better educated people don't have to worry

scottbittle — Thu, 08 Mar 2012 09:00:05 -0500

There’s a fierce debate over whether college is a worthwhile investment, given the high level of student debt. Still, there’s no question that, statistically speaking, college graduates earn more and are less likely to be unemployed than those without a degree.

The real myth is that being better educated automatically makes your job safer in today’s economy. Technology and globalization mean some kinds of high-level professional work can be done anywhere in the world. A study by the National Academies reported that Australian radiologists already read MRIs of American patients, Costa Rican accountants help prepare the tax returns of U.S. businesses, and big companies like GE do much of their R&D overseas.

Another from our 12 Myths About the Jobs Crisis slideshow.

Where Did the (Service) Jobs Go?

scottbittle — Tue, 06 Mar 2012 09:00:05 -0500

Over the last half-century, the United States (along with the rest of the Western world) moved to a service economy. And services are usually provided where the people are, as you can see in this chart of projected growth in service jobs by geography.

There’s at least one plus here, which is that the majority of service jobs aren’t going overseas. Most, but certainly not all, require face-to-face contact. But as Richard Florida noted in The Atlantic, where this chart appeared, whether or not these are the kinds of jobs that can support a middle-class life is another question.

Bad Timing, Worse Future: Young people and unemployment

scottbittle — Sun, 04 Mar 2012 10:02:06 -0500

One of the more disturbing aspects of the jobs crisis is what it does to young people just entering the job market. Studies show that people who first enter the job market during a recession often never catch up economically.

As the Real Time Economics blog puts it:

For young people trying to find work — both men and women — the scars of their early-career unemployment could last a lifetime. Mr. James notes that the early years of a career are meant to be a critical period for developing new skills, advancing up the job ladder and boosting earnings. On average, Mr. James says, two-thirds of lifetime wage growth come in the first 10 years of a person’s career. Millions of unemployed young people are missing out on those opportunities.

The Public's Love-Hate Regulation Relationship

scottbittle — Wed, 29 Feb 2012 10:02:05 -0500

Given that rolling back government regulation is being offered as one way to create jobs, it’s worth taking a closer look at this Pew Research Center survey on public attitudes about regulation.

Generally speaking, half of the public says government regulation usually does more harm than good.

But the only sector most Americans think is over-regulated is small business. Most think health insurers, oil companies, banks and big corporations are either under-regulated or fine as they are. There’s not much appetite for rolling back regulations, and half say food and environmental regulation should be stronger.

The Iceman Goeth: Technology and Jobs

scottbittle — Mon, 27 Feb 2012 10:02:05 -0500

(Library of Congress photo)

Once, there was an iceman working nearly every street in every town in America, including one of our grandfathers. The disappearance of the iceman and the rise of the refrigerator says a lot about how technology affects jobs — and points out what the presidential candidates are desperately avoiding when they talk about the economy.

My grandfather was an example of the “creative destruction” of jobs that economists (and lately presidential candidates) embrace. Technology both creates and destroys jobs, usually at the same time, and ideally because a superior product came along. Refrigerators were better than iceboxes. Eventually even my grandfather admitted it. If you look at the overall economy, the loss of ice routes was more than made up by new jobs making refrigerators.

The key word in creative destruction, however, is “creative.” Now we’re living in another time not unlike the 1930s, with a jobs crisis that’s partly a massive failure of financial markets and partly a huge technological shift in the nature of work. There’s no question the Great Recession slammed the global economy. But one reason why the jobs market has been so slow to recover is that technology is enabling us to do more work with fewer people — or with people anywhere around the world.

Check out the full blog, “The Iceman Goeth: Politicians Ignore the Biggest Threat to American Jobs,” at the Huffington Post.

Jobs Myth No. 3: Balancing the federal budget will create jobs

scottbittle — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 10:02:05 -0500

In the long run, our rising national debt is one of the most dangerous problems our government has, and we have to tackle it. Unfortunately, what’s needed to control deficit spending—cutting federal programs and raising taxes—slows economic growth and job creation in the short run. On the other hand, letting deficit spending mushroom could up-end the entire economy down the road. Sometimes politicians talk like this is a simple problem to fix. It’s not. It’s going to be very tough. Some argue that we can let the federal red ink flow forever, but the only honest debate is over how quickly to move.

Another from our 12 Myths about the Jobs Crisis slideshow: